LETTER TO THE EDITOR: Confidence Interval Estimates of an Index of Quality Performance Based on Logistic Regression Models, by David W. Hosmer and Stanley Lemeshow,Statistics in Medicine,14, 2161-2172 (1995)

1997 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. 1301-1303 ◽  
Author(s):  
HONG ZHOU ◽  
PATRICK S. ROMANO
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Quality Performance ◽  
Interval Estimates ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Letter To The Editor ◽  
Confidence Interval Estimates ◽  
Index Of Quality

scholarly journals Improving the odds? How to pick the winner of the English Derby

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-62
Author(s):  
D.J. Marlin ◽  
J.M. Williams ◽  
T. Parkin
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Mixed Effects ◽  
Point Estimate ◽  
Prize Money ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Predictive Variables ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Predictive Probability

Many consider the English Derby on Epsom Downs to be ‘The Blue Riband of the Turf’. The Epsom Derby has been run annually since 1780 and the colt Diomed was the first winner. Today the Epsom Derby, run over 1.5 miles, is one of five classic races and is the second leg of the English Triple Crown, preceded by the 2,000 Guineas and followed by the St Leger. The prize money for 2010 has been in excess of £1.25 million. To the best of our knowledge, whilst epidemiological techniques have previously been applied in an attempt to identify risk factors for injury, the purpose of the present study, which we believe is unique, was to use an epidemiological approach to analyse factors that may be predictive of success (or failure) in a single race over the course of a number of consecutive years: The Epsom Derby. Information on the horses competing in the last 22 runnings of the Epsom Derby between 1988 and 2009. Univariate and multivariable single-level and mixed effects logistic regression models were developed using winning the Epsom Derby as the dependent variable. Between 1988 and 2009 in 22 runnings of the Derby, a total of 344 horses started the Epsom Derby. The number of runners in the race has varied between 12 and 25 over the same time period. On average the probability of winning the Derby between 1988 and 2009 was approximately 6% (22/344), without accounting for any potentially predictive variables. Variables that were related to an increased chance of success were being the favourite (odds ratio (OR) 4.75; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.58-14.3; P=0.006), the number of 2-year old wins (OR 1.45; CI 1.03-2.04; P=0.03), being foaled in Ireland (OR 2.80; CI 1.12-7.04; P=0.041) and having the same jockey in all races throughout the horses career up to and including the Derby (OR 2.53; CI 1.0-6.41; P=0.05). The highest predictive probability was for horses that started the race as a favourite, were Irish bred, had been ridden by a single jockey and had won twice as a 2-year old. Although the point estimate for this probability was 52% the degree of uncertainty around this estimate was wide, i.e. the 95% CI was 17.5 to 86.5%. Nevertheless even at the lower confidence interval this still represents a significant improvement on the approximately 6% chance of picking a winner at random. In conclusion, using mixed effects logistic regression models would allow one to improve the odds of picking the winner of the Epsom Derby over the past 22 runnings.

scholarly journals The Association between Hyperhomocysteinemia and Thoracoabdominal Aortic Aneurysms in Chinese Population

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Jianqing Deng ◽  
Jie Liu ◽  
Long Cao ◽  
Qun Wang ◽  
Hongpeng Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Case Control Study ◽  
Case Control ◽  
Aortic Aneurysms ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Case Group ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Control Study

Objective. To shed light on the association between hyperhomocysteinemia (HHcy) and thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysms (TAAAs). Methods. From July 2013 to March 2017, we conducted a matched case–control study involving individuals who presented to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army General Hospital and underwent thoracoabdominal magnetic resonance angiography or computed tomography angiography. A total of 73 patients with TAAAs were enrolled in the case group, and 219 sex-matched subjects without TAAAs were included in the control group. We then examined the relationship between HHcy and TAAAs by logistic regression models and subgroup as well as interaction analyses. Results. Serum total homocysteine (tHcy) concentrations and the proportion of HHcy were significantly higher in the patients with TAAAs than in those without TAAAs (P<0.001). Furthermore, the multivariate logistic regression models indicated that participants with HHcy had a 2.14-fold higher risk of TAAAs than those with a normal serum tHcy level (adjusted odds ratio (OR), 2.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.00–4.56). Similarly, each 1 μmol/L increase in the serum tHcy concentration was associated with a 4% higher risk of TAAAs (adjusted OR, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.00–1.07). Subgroup analyses indicated that HHcy tended to be associated with a greater risk of TAAAs in all stratified subgroups (adjusted ORs>1). Furthermore, the interaction analyses revealed no interactive role in the association between HHcy and TAAAs. Conclusions. The present case–control study suggests that HHcy is an independent risk factor for TAAAs. Larger prospective cohort studies are warranted to validate these findings.

Physical activity accrued as part of public transport use in England

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
R Patterson ◽  
E Webb ◽  
C Millett ◽  
A A Laverty
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Daily Life ◽  
Active Travel ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Physical Activity Guidelines ◽  
Logistic Regression Models

Abstract Background Walking and cycling for transport (active travel) is an important source of physical activity with established health benefits. However, levels of physical activity accrued during public transport journeys in England are unknown. Methods Using the English National Travel Survey 2010–14 we quantified active travel as part of public transport journeys. Linear regression models compared levels of physical activity across public transport modes, and logistic regression models compared the odds of undertaking 30 min a day of physical activity. Results Public transport users accumulated 20.5 min (95% confidence interval=19.8, 21.2) a day of physical activity as part of public transport journeys. Train users accumulated 28.1 min (26.3, 30.0) with bus users 16.0 min (15.3, 16.8). Overall, 34% (32%, 36%) of public transport users achieved 30 min a day of physical activity in the course of their journeys; 21% (19%, 24%) of bus users and 52% (47%, 56%) of train users. Conclusion Public transport use is an effective way to incorporate physical activity into daily life. One in three public transport users meet physical activity guidelines suggesting that shifts from sedentary travel modes to public transport could dramatically raise the proportion of populations achieving recommended levels of physical activity.

scholarly journals Soluble ST2 levels for predicting the presence and severity of metabolic syndrome

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao Zong ◽  
Qin Fan ◽  
Hang Zhang ◽  
Qian Yang ◽  
Hongyang Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Metabolic Syndrome ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Subgroup Analysis ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Soluble St2 ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Multivariable Adjustment

To explore the relationship between soluble ST2 (sST2) and metabolic syndrome (MetS) and determine whether sST2 levels can predict the presence and severity of MetS. We evaluated 550 consecutive subjects (58.91 ± 9.69 years, 50% male) with or without MetS from the Department of Vascular and Cardiology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University-Affiliated Ruijin Hospital. Serum sST2 concentrations were measured. The participants were divided into three groups according to the sST2 tertiles. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association between serum sST2 concentrations and the presence of MetS. Serum sST2 concentrations were significantly higher in the MetS group than in those in the no MetS group (14.80 ± 7.01 vs. 11.58 ± 6.41 ng/ml, P < 0.01). Subjects with more MetS components showed higher levels of sST2. sST2 was associated with the occurrence of MetS after multivariable adjustment as a continuous log-transformed variable (per 1 SD, odds ratio [OR]: 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.13-1.80, P < 0.01). Subgroup analysis showed that individuals with MetS have significantly higher levels of sST2 than those without MetS regardless of sex and age.High serum sST2 levels were significantly and independently associated with the presence and severity of MetS. Thus, sST2 levels may be a novel biomarker and clinical predictor of MetS.

scholarly journals Muscle Strength Explains the Protective Effect of Physical Activity against COVID-19 Hospitalization among Adults aged 50 Years and Older

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvio Maltagliati ◽  
Stephen Sieber ◽  
Philippe Sarrazin ◽  
Stéphane Cullati ◽  
Aïna Chalabaev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Muscle Strength ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Protective Effect ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Protective Factor ◽  
Lower Odds ◽  
Logistic Regression Models

AbstractObjectivesPhysical activity has been proposed as a protective factor for COVID-19 hospitalization. However, the mechanisms underlying this association are unclear. Here, we examined the association between physical activity and COVID-19 hospitalization and whether this relationship was explained by other risk factors for severe COVID-19.MethodWe used data from adults aged 50 years and older from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. The outcome was self-reported hospitalization due to COVID-19 measured before August 2020. The main exposure was usual physical activity, self-reported between 2004 and 2017. Data were analyzed using logistic regression models.ResultsAmong the 3139 participants included in the study (69.3 ± 8.5 years, 1763 women), 266 were tested positive for COVID-19 and 66 were hospitalized. Results showed that individuals who engaged in physical activity more than once a week had lower odds of COVID-19 hospitalization than individuals who hardly ever or never engaged in physical activity (odds ratios = 0.41, 95% confidence interval = 0.22–0.74, p = .004). This association between physical activity and COVID-19 hospitalization was explained by muscle strength, but not by other risk factors.ConclusionThese findings suggest that, after 50 years of age, engaging in physical activity more than once a week is associated with lower odds of COVID-19 hospitalization. The protective effect of physical activity on COVID-19 hospitalization is explained by muscle strength.

The impact of SPY angiography on intraoperative decision making and outcomes for post-mastectomy reconstruction

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-5
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Skin Necrosis ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
P Value ◽  
Flap Necrosis ◽  
Single Institution ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
The Impact

Objective: While the use of intraoperative laser angiography (SPY) is increasing in mastectomy patients, its impact in the operating room to change the type of reconstruction performed has not been well described. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether SPY angiography influences post-mastectomy reconstruction decisions and outcomes. Methods and materials: A retrospective analysis of mastectomy patients with reconstruction at a single institution was performed from 2015-2017.All patients underwent intraoperative SPY after mastectomy but prior to reconstruction. SPY results were defined as ‘good’, ‘questionable’, ‘bad’, or ‘had skin excised’. Complications within 60 days of surgery were compared between those whose SPY results did not change the type of reconstruction done versus those who did. Preoperative and intraoperative variables were entered into multivariable logistic regression models if significant at the univariate level. A p-value <0.05 was considered significant. Results: 267 mastectomies were identified, 42 underwent a change in the type of planned reconstruction due to intraoperative SPY results. Of the 42 breasts that underwent a change in reconstruction, 6 had a ‘good’ SPY result, 10 ‘questionable’, 25 ‘bad’, and 2 ‘had areas excised’ (p<0.01). After multivariable analysis, predictors of skin necrosis included patients with ‘questionable’ SPY results (p<0.01, OR: 8.1, 95%CI: 2.06 – 32.2) and smokers (p<0.01, OR:5.7, 95%CI: 1.5 – 21.2). Predictors of any complication included a change in reconstruction (p<0.05, OR:4.5, 95%CI: 1.4-14.9) and ‘questionable’ SPY result (p<0.01, OR: 4.4, 95%CI: 1.6-14.9). Conclusion: SPY angiography results strongly influence intraoperative surgical decisions regarding the type of reconstruction performed. Patients most at risk for flap necrosis and complication post-mastectomy are those with questionable SPY results.

scholarly journals Effect of prostatic apex shape (Lee types) and urethral sphincter length in preoperative MRI on very early continence rates after radical prostatectomy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike Wenzel ◽  
Felix Preisser ◽  
Matthias Mueller ◽  
Lena H. Theissen ◽  
Maria N. Welte ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Radical Prostatectomy ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Urethral Sphincter ◽  
Anatomical Characteristics ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Pad Test ◽  
Type D ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression ◽  
Type C

Abstract Purpose To test the effect of anatomic variants of the prostatic apex overlapping the membranous urethra (Lee type classification), as well as median urethral sphincter length (USL) in preoperative multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) on the very early continence in open (ORP) and robotic-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP) patients. Methods In 128 consecutive patients (01/2018–12/2019), USL and the prostatic apex classified according to Lee types A–D in mpMRI prior to ORP or RARP were retrospectively analyzed. Uni- and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify anatomic characteristics for very early continence rates, defined as urine loss of ≤ 1 g in the PAD-test. Results Of 128 patients with mpMRI prior to surgery, 76 (59.4%) underwent RARP vs. 52 (40.6%) ORP. In total, median USL was 15, 15 and 10 mm in the sagittal, coronal and axial dimensions. After stratification according to very early continence in the PAD-test (≤ 1 g vs. > 1 g), continent patients had significantly more frequently Lee type D (71.4 vs. 54.4%) and C (14.3 vs. 7.6%, p = 0.03). In multivariable logistic regression models, the sagittal median USL (odds ratio [OR] 1.03) and Lee type C (OR: 7.0) and D (OR: 4.9) were independent predictors for achieving very early continence in the PAD-test. Conclusion Patients’ individual anatomical characteristics in mpMRI prior to radical prostatectomy can be used to predict very early continence. Lee type C and D suggest being the most favorable anatomical characteristics. Moreover, longer sagittal median USL in mpMRI seems to improve very early continence rates.

785 Reported Restful Sleep Predicting Emotional Distress: Does Exercise (and its modalities) moderate?

SLEEP ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 44 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. A305-A306
Author(s):  
Jesse Moore ◽  
Ellita Williams ◽  
Collin Popp ◽  
Anthony Briggs ◽  
Judite Blanc ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Aerobic Exercise ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
The Past ◽  
Strengthening Exercise ◽  
Waking Up ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Age And Sex

Abstract Introduction Literature shows that exercise moderates the relationship between sleep and emotional distress (ED.) However, it is unclear whether different types of exercise, such as aerobic and strengthening, affect this relationship differently. We investigated the moderating role of two types of exercise (aerobic and strengthening) regarding the relationship between ED and sleep. Methods Our analysis was based on data from 2018 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), a nationally representative study in which 2,814 participants provided all data. Participants were asked 1) “how many days they woke up feeling rested over the past week”, 2) the Kessler 6 scale to determine ED (a score &gt;13 indicates ED), and 3) the average frequency of strengthening or aerobic exercise per week. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine if the reported days of waking up rested predicted level of ED. We then investigated whether strengthening or aerobic exercise differentially moderated this relationship. Covariates such as age and sex were adjusted in the logistic regression models. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine if subjective reporting of restful sleep predicted level of ED. We investigated whether strengthening exercise or aerobic exercise differentially moderated this relationship. Covariates such as age and sex were adjusted in the logistic regression models. Results On average, participants reported 4.41 restful nights of sleep (SD =2.41), 3.43 strengthening activities (SD = 3.19,) and 8.47 aerobic activities a week (SD=5.91.) We found a significant association between days over the past week reporting waking up feeling rested and ED outcome according to K6, Χ2(1) = -741, p= &lt;.001. The odds ratio signified a decrease of 52% in ED scores for each unit of restful sleep (OR = .48, (95% CI = .33, .65) p=&lt;.001.) In the logistic regression model with moderation, aerobic exercise had a significant moderation effect, Χ2(1) = .03, p=.04, but strengthening exercise did not. Conclusion We found that restful sleep predicted reduction in ED scores. Aerobic exercise moderated this relationship, while strengthening exercise did not. Further research should investigate the longitudinal effects of exercise type on the relationship between restful sleep and ED. Support (if any) NIH (K07AG052685, R01MD007716, K01HL135452, R01HL152453)

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